About the Authors
Steven Byers, Ph.D. is the Senior Economist with Common Sense Institute. Steven’s experience as an economist spans twenty-three years, including work at federal regulatory agencies (SEC, CFTC, PCAOB) and quantitative economic analysis supporting international trade litigation cases brought before the U.S. International Trade Commission.
2023 Owens – Early Criminal Justice Fellows
George Brauchler served as the elected District Attorney for the 18th Judicial District, Colorado’s most populous district, which includes Arapahoe, Douglas, Elbert, and Lincoln counties, from 2013-2021. As a state prosecutor, he handled the felony cases from the Columbine High School mass shooting case, the Aurora Theater (Batman) mass shooting case, and more recently, the STEM Academy school mass shooting case.
Mitch Morrissey served as the elected District Attorney for the 2nd Judicial District covering Denver, Colorado from 2005-2017. Mitch is internationally recognized for his expertise in DNA technology and applying that technology to solve crimes. He has trained law enforcement officers and prosecutors throughout the United States, the Middle East, Central America, and Canada. He currently runs a company that solves Cold Cases with DNA and Investigative Genetic Genealogy
2023 Local Elections
In 2023, Coloradans will have municipal elections in our most populated cities. To inform these debates CSI will produce reports on the most pressing issues facing Colorado cities: crime, housing, and homelessness for Aurora, Denver, Ft. Collins, Grand Junction, and Colorado Springs.
About Common Sense Institute
Common Sense Institute is a non-partisan research organization dedicated to the protection and promotion of our economy. As a leading voice for free enterprise, CSI’s mission is to examine the fiscal impacts of policies, laws, and to educate voters on issues that impact their lives.
CSI’s founders were a concerned group of business and community leaders who observed that divisive partisanship was overwhelming policymaking and believed that sound economic analysis could help people make fact-based and common sense decisions.
CSI employs rigorous research techniques and dynamic modeling to evaluate the potential impact of these measures on the Colorado economy and individual opportunity.
Teams & Fellows Statement
CSI is committed to independent, in-depth research that examines the impacts of policies, initiatives, and proposed laws so that Coloradans are educated and informed on issues impacting their lives. CSI’s commitment to institutional independence is rooted in the individual independence of our researchers, economists, and fellows. At the core of CSI’s mission is belief in the power of the free enterprise system. CSI’s work explores ideas that protect and promote jobs and the economy, and the CSI team and fellows take part in this pursuit with academic freedom. The CSI team’s work is guided by data-driven research and evidence.
The views and opinions of fellows do not reflect the institutional views of CSI. CSI operates independently of any political party and does not take positions.
Introduction
Since 2019, crime in Colorado has skyrocketed to become a major issue for policy makers across the state. Ahead of local elections, CSI is highlighting important issues, including crime, that local voters care about. This report analyzes the current state of Aurora crime and crime rates. Common Sense Institute (CSI) focused data from Colorado Crime Statistics and focused on statistics reported by the Aurora Police Department.[i]
CSI aims to offset fear with facts. Media reports and anecdotal observations might not present the full picture. Actual crime data, especially compared to other jurisdictions and the entire state, clarifies reality. Statewide crime statistics combine both urban and rural areas, and because they are overarching, will often be lower than those of individual cities. Aurora’s data shows a darker picture than other cities as its crime rate has been increasing. Policymakers and local leaders can affect change more effectively as they understand CSI data.
The number of crimes in Aurora, represented by the blue line in Figure 1, has averaged 24,132 since 2008 and fluctuated between 20,726 and 31,008 between 2008 and 2022. The volatility in total crime incidents was largely driven by changes in property crimes, including burglary, credit card fraud, vandalism, motor vehicle thefts, and theft from motor vehicles. The change in the annual number of crimes in Aurora tracks with a steady increase in Colorado crime through 2022 as shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1 – Number of Crime Incidents in Colorado and in Aurora, CO.
Report Key Findings
- Aurora crime is up.
- Aurora’s crime rate rose 12.4% from 2008 to 2022. The crimes against persons rate rose 46%. The crimes against property rate rose 17.7%.
- Aurora has a Crime Concentration of 151.6%, meaning Aurora’s crime is 51.6% more concentrated than Colorado’s. The likelihood of being a crime victim in Aurora is much higher.
- Police strength and performance are down.
- The arrest rate by the Aurora Police Department has decreased by 49.6% since 2008, while clearance rates have dropped 59%.
- From 2008 to 2023, the Aurora Police Department Budget per resident increased 52.1% in nominal dollars, but only 7.4% in inflation adjusted dollars.
- Aurora’s police force strength has not increased with the population. The number of Aurora Police Department personnel has increased 19.3% since 2008 but decreased 3.7% per 100,000 residents.
- Aurora City Council revised its civil services hiring practices to remove inefficiencies and is implementing a new program to monitor crime rates, police department budgets, and manpower.
- The number of sworn officers on patrol has increased by 15.4% since 2008 and there are 412.
- Aurora Police Department response times have increased in all three patrol districts. From 2012 to 2022, response times rose 45.2% in District 1, 57.3% in District 2, and 33.6% in District 3.
- Following the July 2022 change to penalties for motor vehicle theft in Aurora, motor vehicle theft rates have declined 28.6% from 630 per 100,000 residents to 450 per 100,000 in June 2023.
Crime Rates in Aurora
The data in this section come from Colorado Crime Statistics. Figure 2 shows the evolution of the average monthly crime rates in Aurora and Colorado since 2008. The average monthly crime rate in Aurora has increased by 12.5% from 688 per 100,000 in 2008 to 774 per 100,000 in 2022. Since 2008, the crime rate in Aurora has exceeded the state as a whole. As of 2022, Aurora’s crime rate is 36% higher than Colorado’s. In 2008, Aurora’s crime rate was 55.7% higher.
Figure 2 – Average Monthly Crime Rate per 100,000 in Aurora and Colorado
Figure 3 shows the average monthly rates of crime against persons per 100,000 residents in Aurora and Colorado. From 2008 to 2022, Aurora’s rate of crime against persons increased by 45.2% from 126 to 183 per 100,000 while Colorado’s rose by 56.9% from 66.3 to 104 per 100,000. In 2022, Aurora’s monthly crime rate against persons is 76% higher than for Colorado overall.
Figure 3 – Average Monthly Crime Rate per 100,000 in Aurora and Colorado – Crimes Against Person
Figure 4 shows the average monthly rate of crime against property per 100,000 residents in Aurora and Colorado. From 2008 to 2022, Aurora’s rate increased by 17.6% from 466 to 548 per 100,000 while Colorado’s increased by 27.6% from 322.5 to 411 per 100,000. In 2022, Aurora’s crime rate against property is 33.3% higher than for Colorado overall.
Figure 4 – Average Monthly Crime Rate per 100,000 in Aurora and Colorado – Crimes Against Property
Figure 5 shows the average monthly rate of crime against society per 100,000 residents in Aurora and Colorado. From 2008 to 2022, Aurora’s rate decreased by 56.8% from 96.8 to 41.8 per 100,000 residents while Colorado’s increased by 1.3% from 53.3 in 2008 to 54 per 100,000 residents in 2022. As of 2022, Aurora’s crime rate per 100,000 residents is 22.6% lower than for Colorado overall.
Figure 5 – Average Monthly Crime Rate per 100,000 in Aurora and Colorado – Crimes Against Society
Crimes against society include all crimes that are not crimes against persons or property. These include drug and narcotic violations, illegal betting and wagering, illegal gambling operations, illegal pornography, prostitution, and weapons violations.
Figure 6 shows average monthly crime rates by major crime category in 2013, 2018, 2019 and 2023, as well as their changes from 2013 to 2018 and from 2019 to 2022. The total crime rate in Aurora increased by 14.6% from 2014 to 2018 and increased by another 9.7% from 2019 to 2023. Crime against persons fell by 4.6% from 2018 to 2023, after increasing between 2013 and 2018 by 56.3. Crime against property increased by 20.5% from 2018 to 2023. Crime against society decreased by 23.3% from 2019 to 2023 after increasing by 7.6% from 2013 to 2018.
Some of the larger increases occurred in burglary, which increased by 17% from 2019 to 2023 after a 22.5% decline between 2013 and 2018, weapons law violation, which rose by 18.5% from 2019 to 2023 after a 10.7% increase between 2013 and 2018, aggravated assault increased by 59% from 2019 to 2023 following a 119% increase between 2013 and 2018, and auto theft, which increased by 122.9% from 2019 to 2023. A more comprehensive version of Figure 6 showing all categories of crime is provided Figure 20 in the appendix.
Figure 6 – Aurora Average Monthly Crime Rate per 100,000 by Crime Category
| Aurora Average Monthly Crime Rate per 100,000 Residents | ||||||
| Crime Rate | Percent Change | |||||
| Average Monthly Crime Rate | 2015 | 2018 | 2019 | 2022 | 2015-2018 | 2019-2022 |
| Total Crime Rate Colorado | 461.3 | 509.0 | 495.1 | 417.9 | 10.3% | -15.6% |
| Total Crime Rate Aurora | 573 | 657 | 646 | 708 | 14.6% | 9.7% |
| Crimes against Person | 113 | 176 | 176 | 168 | 56.3% | -4.6% |
| Crimes against Property | 400 | 416 | 410 | 495 | 3.9% | 20.5% |
| Crimes against Society | 60 | 65 | 59 | 46 | 7.6% | -23.3% |
| Sexual Assault | 11 | 16 | 17 | 11 | 39.9% | -36.0% |
| Murder | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -16.4% | -0.8% |
| Robbery | 12 | 14 | 14 | 13 | 23.6% | -9.4% |
| Aggravated Assault | 18 | 38 | 38 | 60 | 119.0% | 59.0% |
| Weapons Law Violation | 12 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 10.7% | 18.5% |
| Burglary | 48 | 37 | 35 | 40 | -22.5% | 17.0% |
| Theft from Motor Vehicles | 34 | 43 | 37 | 39 | 25.7% | 6.2% |
| Intimidation | 3 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 85.8% | -31.1% |
| Auto Theft | 25 | 52 | 53 | 118 | 108.4% | 122.9% |
| Source: Colorado Crime Statistics | ||||||
Crime in Aurora Relative to Nearby Cities
Figures 7 and 8 show the average monthly crime rates per 100,000 residents in Aurora and cities nearby (Brighton, Commerce City, Denver, Federal Heights, Northglenn, Thornton, Westminster). From 2008 to 2022 the annual crime rate in Aurora has risen 12.4% from 8,261 per 100,000 in 2008 to 9283 per 100,000 in 2022. From 2015 to 2018, Aurora experienced a 10.5% increase in the annual crime rate crime, the second highest increase. Thornton had the largest increase, 51.9%. From 2019 – 2022 the crime rate in Aurora increased 19.8%, the third largest increase in the crime rate relative to its neighbors. Denver had the second largest increase 39.9%. Westminster had the largest increase in the crime rate, 41.2%. Only Adams County experienced a decrease in crime from 2019 to 2022.
Figure 7 – Average Monthly Crime Rate in Aurora and Nearby Cities
Figure 8 – Changes in Average Monthly Crime Rates per 100,000 in Cities Near Aurora
| Crime Rates per 100,000 Residents | ||||||
| City/Jurisdiction | 2015 | 2018 | 2019 | 2022 | Change 2013-2018 | Change 2019-2022 |
| Aurora | 7,129 | 7,879 | 7,747 | 9,283 | 10.5% | 19.8% |
| Adams County Sheriff | 7,006 | 6,795 | 7,363 | 6,217 | -3.0% | -15.6% |
| Brighton | 7,670 | 7,137 | 6,532 | 6,914 | -6.9% | 5.8% |
| Commerce City | 7,431 | 7,529 | 7,387 | 8,033 | 1.3% | 8.7% |
| Denver | 720 | 811 | 827 | 1,157 | 12.7% | 39.9% |
| Federal Heights | 10,072 | 9,119 | 6,774 | 7,957 | -9.5% | 17.5% |
| Northglenn | 7,163 | 7,917 | 8,039 | 9,390 | 10.5% | 16.8% |
| Thornton | 4,829 | 7,334 | 6,856 | 7,773 | 51.9% | 13.4% |
| Westminster | 6,234 | 6,483 | 6,191 | 8,740 | 4.0% | 41.2% |
| Source: Colorado Crime Stats | ||||||
Using the latest report from the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR) for the first quarter of 2023, CSI converted the number of crime incidents to crime rates based on the populations of each reporting city. 221 cities reported to the UCR in Q1 2022 and 2023. Figure 9 – shows Aurora’s’ rankings across several major crime categories. Aurora is in the top fifth (worst) nationally in all categories.
Figure 9 – FBI City Crime Rates Ranked Nationally
| 2022 and 2023 FBI 1st Quarter Colorado Crime Rates Ranked among Reporting Cities[ii] | |||||||||||
| Year | Violent Crime |
Murder | Rape | Robbery | Aggravated Assault |
Property Crime |
Burglary | Larceny- theft |
Motor Vehicle Theft |
Arson | |
| Arvada | 2022 | 158 | 162 | 180 | 134 | 152 | 95 | 128 | 97 | 65 | 69 |
| Arvada | 2023 | 173 | 116 | 166 | 174 | 166 | 128 | 118 | 134 | 96 | 58 |
| Aurora | 2022 | 20 | 40 | 22 | 24 | 19 | 24 | 29 | 32 | 8 | 20 |
| Aurora | 2023 | 22 | 40 | 20 | 26 | 19 | 22 | 21 | 26 | 15 | 18 |
| Boulder | 2022 | 205 | 162 | 205 | 195 | 196 | 198 | 173 | 201 | 167 | 78 |
| Boulder | 2023 | 146 | 160 | 109 | 188 | 136 | 111 | 91 | 113 | 136 | 97 |
| Centennial | 2022 | 182 | 162 | 194 | 195 | 168 | 151 | 128 | 173 | 101 | 107 |
| Centennial | 2023 | 215 | 160 | 220 | 209 | 210 | 195 | 205 | 199 | 161 | 118 |
| Colorado Springs | 2022 | 33 | 29 | 15 | 40 | 32 | 25 | 22 | 23 | 26 | 10 |
| Colorado Springs | 2023 | 30 | 72 | 17 | 43 | 29 | 24 | 22 | 20 | 27 | 6 |
| Denver | 2022 | 13 | 20 | 6 | 14 | 14 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 1 | 11 |
| Denver | 2023 | 9 | 17 | 5 | 12 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 13 |
| Fort Collins | 2022 | 147 | 162 | 103 | 201 | 129 | 105 | 116 | 96 | 135 | 69 |
| Fort Collins | 2023 | 128 | 160 | 136 | 144 | 109 | 101 | 132 | 85 | 143 | 51 |
| Lakewood | 2022 | 68 | 100 | 74 | 49 | 75 | 45 | 51 | 53 | 31 | 51 |
| Lakewood | 2023 | 69 | 72 | 109 | 46 | 69 | 49 | 67 | 52 | 35 | 43 |
| Longmont | 2022 | 156 | 131 | 103 | 201 | 148 | 138 | 135 | 141 | 129 | 124 |
| Longmont | 2023 | 133 | 160 | 60 | 188 | 131 | 135 | 153 | 128 | 122 | 118 |
| Pueblo | 2022 | 55 | 73 | 46 | 34 | 63 | 59 | 53 | 68 | 41 | 41 |
| Pueblo | 2023 | 46 | 61 | 48 | 47 | 47 | 57 | 52 | 65 | 38 | 34 |
| Thornton | 2022 | 142 | 162 | 67 | 125 | 166 | 67 | 131 | 69 | 43 | 86 |
| Thornton | 2023 | 144 | 116 | 40 | 114 | 190 | 74 | 116 | 75 | 57 | 69 |
| Westminster | 2022 | 168 | 162 | 180 | 146 | 163 | 71 | 121 | 81 | 37 | 65 |
| Westminster | 2023 | 148 | 116 | 109 | 129 | 151 | 80 | 134 | 99 | 45 | 118 |
| Quarterly Uniform Crime Report data for the nation are derived from National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) reports voluntarily submitted to the FBI. This report is based on data received from 12,104 of 18,964 law enforcement agencies in the country. The Quarterly release presents the number of violent and property crime offenses known to law enforcement for agencies with resident populations of 100,000 or more that also provided data from the previous year. | |||||||||||
Based on the same data used in Figure 9, CSI ranked the ten Colorado cities against each other as shown in Figure 10. Aurora is ranked 2nd or 3rd worst in 10 crime categories. Denver is ranked the worst in all categories with the exception of arson.
Figure 10 – FBI City Crime Rates Ranked in Colorado
| 2022 and 2023 FBI 1st Quarter Colorado Crime Rates Ranked Among Reporting Cities[iii] | |||||||||||
| Year | Violent Crime |
Murder | Rape | Robbery | Aggravated Assault |
Property Crime |
Burglary | Larceny- theft |
Motor Vehicle Theft |
Arson | |
| Arvada | 2022 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 8 | 7 |
| Arvada | 2023 | 11 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 7 |
| Aurora | 2022 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Aurora | 2023 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| Boulder | 2022 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 9 |
| Boulder | 2023 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 9 |
| Centennial | 2022 | 11 | 7 | 11 | 9 | 11 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 9 | 11 |
| Centennial | 2023 | 12 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 10 |
| Colorado Springs | 2022 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Colorado Springs | 2023 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| Denver | 2022 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Denver | 2023 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| Fort Collins | 2022 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 7 |
| Fort Collins | 2023 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 11 | 6 |
| Lakewood | 2022 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| Lakewood | 2023 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 |
| Longmont | 2022 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 12 |
| Longmont | 2023 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| Pueblo | 2022 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 4 |
| Pueblo | 2023 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 4 |
| Thornton | 2022 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 10 |
| Thornton | 2023 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
| Westminster | 2022 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| Westminster | 2023 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 10 |
| Quarterly Uniform Crime Report data for the nation are derived from National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) reports voluntarily submitted to the FBI. This report is based on data received from 12,104 of 18,964 law enforcement agencies in the country. The Quarterly release presents the number of violent and property crime offenses known to law enforcement for agencies with resident populations of 100,000 or more that also provided data from the previous year. | |||||||||||
Crime in Aurora in 2023 YTD.
Figure 11 shows that the average monthly crime rate in Aurora peaked in March of 2021 at 914 per 100,000 residents, after which it averaged around 800 per 100,000 residents until mid-2022. Beginning in July 2022, it began to decline overall through June 2023 to 707 per 100,000 residents, a 22.7% decrease.
Figure 11 – Average Monthly Crime Rate per 100,000 from 2020 to 2023 YTD
Motor Vehicle Theft in Aurora
In July 2022, Aurora officials passed new ordinances addressing motor vehicle theft. With a year of motor vehicle theft following the changes, the monthly motor vehicle theft rate has declined 28.6% from 630 per 100,000 residents in July 2022 to 450 per 100,000 residents in June 2023. Figure 12 shows the monthly motor vehicle theft rate for Aurora, Denver, and the rest of Colorado (Aurora removed from overall Colorado stats). The motor vehicle theft in Aurora began to decline in March 2022, four months prior to the passage of the new ordinances, but there were disclosures of the City’s intention to introduce new ordinances prior to the July 2022 passage and it is likely that this signaling had an impact on thefts. After the passage in July 2022, the declines in the theft rate continued.
Motor vehicle theft rate also declined in the rest of Colorado as well. It is possible that the actions by city officials in Aurora also impacted the theft rate in the rest of Colorado. Not long after the new ordinances were passed in Aurora, the State Legislature began to consider the issue and eventually resulted in the passage of SB23-097 in May 2023. It is plausible that the message that motor vehicle thefts were going to be treated more harshly going forward reached thieves and organized gangs and this curtailed their activities.
Figure 12 – Motor Vehicle Theft Rate in Aurora and the Rest of Colorado
Figure 13 shows auto theft rates for cities near Aurora in January 2020, March 2022 when they peaked, in July 2022 when the new auto theft ordinance in Aurora went into effect, and in March 2023, the last month that data is available for all nine cities. Since the vehicle theft ordinance went into effect in Aurora the theft rate declined in eight of nine cities, only in Brighton did they continue to rise. It is difficult to say that the change in the ordinance in Aurora reduced vehicle theft rates given that rates fell in seven of the cities nearby Aurora as well, and in four of those cities the decline was larger than in Aurora (Commerce City, Denver, Federal Heights, and Northglenn).
Figure 13 – Motor Vehicle Theft Rates in Cities Near Aurora
| Motor Vehicle Theft Rates per 100,000 Residents | ||||||
| City/Jurisdiction | Jan 20 | Mar 22 | Jul 22 | Mar 23 | Chg. Jan 20-Jul 22 | Chg. Jul 22-Mar 23 |
| Aurora | 62.22 | 165.8 | 161.7 | 122.66 | 159.9% | -24.1% |
| Adams County Sheriff | 69.6 | 83.82 | 107.8 | 86.82 | 54.8% | -19.4% |
| Brighton | 44.67 | 70.38 | 50.96 | 58.25 | 14.1% | 14.3% |
| Commerce City | 32.17 | 124.6 | 138.3 | 75.97 | 329.8% | -45.1% |
| Denver | 62.22 | 204.9 | 182.6 | 137.25 | 193.5% | -24.8% |
| Federal Heights | 30.81 | 121.5 | 121.5 | 50.05 | 294.5% | -58.8% |
| Northglenn | 61.29 | 144.7 | 122.8 | 76.43 | 100.4% | -37.8% |
| Thornton | 33.99 | 62.91 | 72.7 | 58.02 | 113.9% | -20.2% |
| Westminster | 41.25 | 122.3 | 120.5 | 101.02 | 192.2% | -16.2% |
| Source: Colorado Crime Stats | ||||||
Arrests in Aurora
Figure 14 shows the number of arrests and the number of incidents of crime in Aurora. Over a period when the number of incidents of crime has increased 33.3% since 2008, the number of arrests by the Aurora Police Department decreased by 49.6%.
Figure 14 – Number of Crime Incidents vs. Number of Arrests – Aurora, CO.
Police Department Clearance Rates
From 2008 to 2022, the number of crime incidents has increased 33.3%, over the same time the incidence clearance rate for the Aurora Police Department has decreased 59% to 16.2% in 2022. Figures 15 and 16 show the Aurora Police Department clearance rates for overall crime incidents, crimes against person, crimes against property, and crimes against society. Clearance rates have been decreasing in all broad categories. Clearance rates are highest for crimes against society followed by crimes against person, and crimes against property.
Figure 15 – Incident Clearance Rates – Aurora Police Department
Clearance rates for crimes against person have decreased 46% to 15.6% in 2023, for crimes against property they have decreased 63.4% to 8.9% in 2023, and clearance rates for crimes against society have decreased 36.3% to 56.4% in 2023.
Figure 16 – Crime Incident Clearance Rates – Aurora Police Department
| Crime Incident Clearance Rates – Aurora Police Department | ||||
| All Offense Types – Clearance Rate | Crimes Against Person – Clearance Rate | Crimes Against Property – Clearance Rate | Crimes Against Society – Clearance Rate | |
| 2008 | 37.9% | 65.4% | 24.4% | 88.6% |
| 2009 | 39.6% | 66.3% | 25.9% | 91.0% |
| 2010 | 37.8% | 65.1% | 24.5% | 88.7% |
| 2011 | 37.5% | 63.1% | 24.8% | 88.6% |
| 2012 | 39.8% | 63.3% | 27.2% | 87.2% |
| 2013 | 38.8% | 62.2% | 28.3% | 86.2% |
| 2014 | 41.1% | 62.3% | 30.3% | 87.3% |
| 2015 | 39.1% | 58.2% | 29.4% | 82.7% |
| 2016 | 33.8% | 52.6% | 24.3% | 79.8% |
| 2017 | 30.6% | 49.4% | 20.0% | 76.2% |
| 2018 | 30.1% | 49.7% | 19.6% | 76.0% |
| 2019 | 29.2% | 45.9% | 20.0% | 74.0% |
| 2020 | 20.5% | 41.2% | 13.3% | 55.6% |
| 2021 | 17.2% | 38.0% | 10.2% | 56.5% |
| 2022 | 15.6% | 35.3% | 8.9% | 56.4% |
| Change 2008 – 2022 | -59% | -46% | -63.4% | -36.3% |
Police Department Budget
Figure 17 shows the per capita spending in nominal and real (inflation adjusted) terms for the Aurora Police Department budget. From 2008 to 2023, nominal expenditures per person increased 52% from $251 to $382. In inflation adjusted terms, spending per person increased 7.35%, from $251 in 2008 to $270 in 2023.
Figure 17 – Per Capita Spending by Aurora Police Department and the Crime Rate
Police Department Personnel
The number of personnel (FTE’s) in the Aurora Police Department increased 19.3% from 778 in 2008 to 928.5 in 2023. A more relevant measure is personnel per 100,000 residents. Figure 18 shows the total personnel (FTE’s) per 100,000 residents and the split between sworn (Civil) and civilian (Regular) personnel. By this measure total personnel declined 3.7% from 246 per 100,000 in 2008 to 236.8 per 100,000 in 2023. Sworn (Civil) personnel declined 17.5% from 231.1 in 2008 to 190.8 in 2023. Civilian (Regular) personnel decreased 9.3% from 50.7 per 100,000 in 2008 to 46 per 100,000 in 2023.
Figure 18 –Aurora Police Department Personnel
The Aurora Police Department is organized into three districts responsible for providing patrol services and specialized functions including investigations, and Police Area Representatives (PAR) officers for its geographic region. Figure 19 shows the personnel per 100,000 residents for all three districts combined. Total personnel per 100,000 residents have increased 12.2% from 381.5 in 2008 to 428 in 2023. Sworn (Civil) personnel per 100,000 have increased 15.4% from 357 per to 412 in 2023, indicating a larger public police presence. Civilian (Regular) personnel per 100,000 have decreased 34.7% from 24.5 in 2008 to 16 in 2023.
Figure 19 – Personnel in Patrol Districts in Aurora Police Department
Police Response Time
Figure 20 shows the Aurora Police Department’s average response time has been trending upward for all three of its patrol districts since 2015, indicating that the police are taking longer to arrive at the scene of an incident. From 2012 (first reported data) to 2022, in District 1 response times have increased 45.2%, in District 2 response times have increased 57.3%, and in District 3 response times have increased 33.6%.
Figure 20 – Aurora Police Department Response Rates
New City Policies
Recently, the Aurora City Council adopted changes to the Aurora Civil Service Commission’s hiring process. The new process has yielded results, according to Councilman Dustin Zvonek. The class size for basic police recruits is the largest in years.
Conclusion
The information in this report is intended to help voters and elected officials better understand the key areas of concern to better focus policy and resource discussions. The crime rate in Aurora is higher than in Colorado overall and is among the worst large cities in the country. The police department has been responding with increased spending and manpower, but it has yet to turn the tide of high crime.
Appendix
Figure 21 – Crime Rates in Aurora
| Crime Rates in Aurora | ||||||
| Category of Crime | 2013 | 2018 | 2019 | 2023 | Change 2013-2018 | Change 2019-2023 |
| Crimes against Person | 988.2 | 968.1 | 835.0 | 521.9 | -2.0% | -37.5% |
| Murder and Nonnegligent Manslaughter | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.7% | |
| Negligent Manslaughter | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -100.0% | |
| Justifiable Homicide | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Kidnapping/Abduction | 22.0 | 24.4 | 27.5 | 14.9 | 10.9% | -45.9% |
| Rape | 29.3 | 17.8 | 19.3 | 9.5 | -39.2% | -50.7% |
| Sodomy | 4.7 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 3.6 | -61.8% | 21.8% |
| Sexual Assault with an Object | 4.7 | 1.8 | 4.7 | 2.4 | -61.8% | -49.1% |
| Fondling | 28.7 | 35.1 | 28.7 | 19.6 | 22.5% | -31.5% |
| Incest | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.2 | ||
| Statutory Rape | 2.7 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 0.0 | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Aggravated Assault | 172.6 | 186.7 | 172.6 | 123.2 | 8.2% | -28.6% |
| Simple Assault | 699.7 | 651.8 | 520.2 | 303.5 | -6.9% | -41.7% |
| Intimidation | 24.0 | 45.2 | 55.6 | 43.4 | 88.4% | -21.9% |
| Human Trafficking, Commercial Sex Acts | 0.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Human Trafficking, Involuntary Servitude | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Crimes against Property | 3922.9 | 3691.7 | 3664.4 | 2117.9 | -5.9% | -42.2% |
| Arson | 7.3 | 7.1 | 4.1 | 7.1 | -2.6% | 74.1% |
| Bribery | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | -11.9% | -65.9% |
| Burglary/Breaking & Entering | 357.2 | 212.3 | 205.4 | 131.5 | -40.6% | -36.0% |
| Counterfeiting/Forgery | 65.3 | 70.2 | 75.5 | 27.4 | 7.5% | -63.7% |
| Destruction/Damage/Vandalism of Property | 910.9 | 677.9 | 742.0 | 369.0 | -25.6% | -50.3% |
| Embezzlement | 20.7 | 21.4 | 26.3 | 4.2 | 3.6% | -84.2% |
| Extortion/Blackmail | 1.3 | 10.1 | 11.1 | 19.6 | 660.2% | 76.6% |
| False Pretenses/Swindle/Confidence Game | 72.6 | 273.5 | 245.8 | 113.7 | 276.6% | -53.8% |
| Credit Card/Automated Teller Machine Fraud | 75.3 | 165.3 | 139.9 | 92.8 | 119.5% | -33.6% |
| Impersonation | 118.0 | 87.4 | 70.2 | 36.9 | -25.9% | -47.5% |
| Welfare Fraud | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Wire Fraud | 62.0 | 12.5 | 12.9 | 41.7 | -79.8% | 223.7% |
| Identity Theft | 0.0 | 63.0 | 67.3 | 65.5 | -2.7% | |
| Hacking/Computer Invasion | 0.0 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 5.4 | -16.8% | |
| Robbery | 25.3 | 22.6 | 21.1 | 16.1 | -10.7% | -23.7% |
| Pocket-picking | 1.3 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 257.9% | -12.9% |
| Purse-snatching | 0.0 | 3.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Shoplifting | 524.4 | 451.9 | 408.5 | 287.4 | -13.8% | -29.6% |
| Theft from Building | 246.6 | 229.5 | 221.2 | 66.1 | -6.9% | -70.1% |
| Theft from Coin Operated Machine or Device | 4.0 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | -10.8% | -59.4% |
| Theft from Motor Vehicle | 458.5 | 390.7 | 507.4 | 257.1 | -14.8% | -49.3% |
| Theft of Motor Vehicle Parts/Accessories | 108.0 | 126.7 | 131.1 | 161.9 | 17.3% | 23.5% |
| All Other Larceny | 756.3 | 680.3 | 579.9 | 251.7 | -10.1% | -56.6% |
| Motor Vehicle Theft | 94.6 | 110.0 | 139.9 | 107.1 | 16.3% | -23.4% |
| Stolen Property Offenses | 12.7 | 60.1 | 39.8 | 50.6 | 374.4% | 27.1% |
| Crimes against Society | 369.8 | 650.6 | 578.7 | 434.4 | 75.9% | -24.9% |
| Drug/Narcotic Violations | 245.9 | 442.4 | 400.8 | 210.1 | 79.9% | -47.6% |
| Drug Equipment Violations | 65.3 | 111.8 | 83.1 | 179.7 | 71.2% | 116.3% |
| Betting/Wagering | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Operating/Promoting/Assisting Gambling | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Gambling Equipment Violations | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Sports Tampering | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | ||
| Pornography/Obscene Material | 10.0 | 17.3 | 24.6 | 8.3 | 72.5% | -66.1% |
| Prostitution | 0.0 | 4.8 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -100.0% | |
| Assisting or Promoting Prostitution | 0.7 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 0.0 | 432.8% | -100.0% |
| Purchasing Prostitution | 0.0 | 14.3 | 11.7 | 0.6 | -94.9% | |
| Weapon Law Violations | 48.0 | 51.1 | 51.5 | 32.1 | 6.6% | -37.6% |
| Animal Cruelty | 0.0 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.7% | |
| Violent Crime | 265.2 | 267.6 | 249.9 | 175.0 | 0.9% | -30.0% |
| Murder | 0.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 1.7% | |
| Aggravated Assault | 172.6 | 186.7 | 172.6 | 123.2 | 8.2% | -28.6% |
| Non-consensual Sex Offenses | 67.3 | 56.5 | 55.6 | 35.1 | -16.1% | -36.8% |
| Robbery | 25.3 | 22.6 | 21.1 | 16.1 | -10.7% | -23.7% |
| Total | 5281.0 | 5310.3 | 5078.2 | 3074.2 | 0.6% | -39.5% |