What’s at the intersection of economic modeling and epidemiological modeling? Hopefully, the answers to what most of us are asking. How bad will this crisis get and when will the economy reopen? Recently, Governor Polis and Colorado public health officials addresses these questions. While nobody knows for sure, the latest modeling indicates that Colorado has either already reached its peak number of new cases, or it will come within the next few weeks. While the specific metrics or thresholds that will be used to determine when the current stay-at-home orders will be lifted have not been released, the Governor remained hopeful that the current April 26th timeline will hold. You can take a look at some of the modeling that is being used to make those determinations for yourself.
Projections of the COVID-19 epidemic in Colorado under different social distancing scenarios. Prepared by the COVID-19 Modeling Group with the University of Colorado School of Public Health. Another update is expected this week. https://drive.google.com/file/d/19ST3tRnntUGV3h7YI0tQHJDnCoL5dRE7/view
The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/colorado
Recent Press Coverage on the topic:
https://kdvr.com/news/coronavirus/colorado-hospital-association-disputes-national-model-suggests-peak-of-covid-19-cases-is-still-to-come/
https://denver.cbslocal.com/2020/04/06/colorado-researcher-metrics-economy/
https://www.cpr.org/2020/04/07/polis-health-and-economy-officials-colorado-will-recover-if-coloradans-stay-home-now/
https://coloradosun.com/2020/04/07/colorado-coronavirus-cases-models/