This month, CSPR Policy & Research Director Chris Brown addressed the Colorado Association of Realtors during their annual Day at the Capitol. Brown discussed issues impacting housing and the importance of “getting housing right for Colorado’s future.”
Text and graphics from Chris Brown’s presentation are below.
2019 REALTOR® Day at the Capitol
Colorado Association of Realtors®
Chris Brown
Director of Policy and Research
Common Sense Policy Roundtable
REMI Partnership
Mission: To Be Educational Resource
Policy Research
Dynamic simulation modeling
- Answer “What If” questions
- Factor in dynamic changes from price, wages, costs, supply and multiplier effect
REMI Partnership Research
2018
www.remipartnership.org
- 1% Housing Growth
- PERA
- What if Colorado Schools Were Number 1?
- Amendment 73 –A tax increase for schools
- Proposition 112 –A 2,500-ft setback
- Comparison of Proposition 109 and 110 –Alternative transportation funding solutions
#1 Economy -2018 US News and World report
December 2017 to December 2018
- 11th in total job growth = 75,400
- 7th in % job growth = 2.8%
- 6th in total population growth = 88,416
- 4th in % population growth = 2.9%
- Unemployment Rate Increased 3% to 3.5%
Not #1
#48 –US News –Colorado Housing Affordability
#5–Nationwide Insurance National Report “Steepest Decline in Housing Affordability” –Denver
Relative Affordability index – Attom Data Solutions
- Denver #2
- Adams County #3
Housing Matters
#1 – Largest Household Asset
33% – Largest Share of a Household Budget
Housing spending + residential investment
13.2% – Share of Colorado GDP
$46 Billion – Total Expenditures in CO
- Teacher pay
- Public employees
- Minimum wage
- Retaining and attracting workforce
State and Local Fiscal Policy Interactions
Property values have not grown evenly across Colorado
1982 Gallagher Amendment
- Dictates 45/55 split
- Fixes commercial assessment at 29%
- Residential assessment has dropped from 21% to 7.2%
- Statewide assessment & Interaction with TABOR
State fiscal policy –Transportation
- Average VMT: Jumped from 31.9 to 32.7 post 2012 after steady decline
- % of daily trips on freeways: 1982 = 44% 2014 = 51%
- 40% increase in commuters driving 90+ minutes –2005 -2016
Proposed 1% Growth Caps in Lakewood is Back
-13% to -37% reduction in new housing units
Between 4,000 and 5,900 fewer units within 5 years
Between 8,100 and 11,100 fewer units within 10 years
Other Key Findings:
- 62% of Lakewood employment cannot afford current median home price
- $107,000 and $139,000 gap between median home and what starting pay of police and fire in region can afford
- In-commuters jumped from 9% to 17%
1% Growth Cap Across 10-Front Range Counties
For the period of 2019-2028 the estimated impact of Initiative 66 would;
- Eliminate between 45% to 55% of new residential housing units
- Remove $54B to $80B in new residential investment spending
- Reduce the number of jobs by between 36,000 and 55,000 annually
- Overrule local jurisdiction’s control of issuing housing permits
Ratio of Housing Units to Household PopulationDifference Between 2.02 and 2.14
Denver = 19,165 or 6%
Shift Research Lab Report = 32,000 undersupply or 10%
Statewide Difference between 2.24 and 2.35 = 116,613 or 5%
Getting Housing Right Matters For Colorado’s Future
REMI Partnership Priorities
Housing affordability
Gallagher Reform
TABOR Reform
Eliminating tax expenditures for lower rate
Paid family Leave
State-run healthcare
Transportation
Education
Opportunity Tax Credit Zones
Water
Regulatory Burden
Others
Initiative 300: Rights to Unrestricted Access to Public Outdoor Space
- Law change would be unprecedented
- Uncertainty in definitions of key words and unintended consequences
1. What is public outdoor space?
2. Does not just pertain those experiencing homelessness - Unauthorized Camping Ban has resulted in 32 citations out of 18,000 contacts
- 1.2 beds per homeless individual throughout 7 county metro but more work to be done
- Longer periods of chronic homelessness show lower rates of ever regaining permanent stable housing
